Can India bring China to its knees?

Leo Tolstoy once said ‘Near neighbors are seldom friends’

This applies equally to both India as well a China.

China doesn’t have many friends in this world today, none among it’s neighbors — except perhaps North Korea.

Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Laos, Burma, Mongolia, Russia, Bhutan, Nepal — almost all it’s neighbors despise her and have some sort of historical animosity over the borders or the rivers or the south china sea.

Inside China, it have unrest and discontent over by Taiwan (who consider themselves to be the real Chinese govt.) Tibet (who considers themselves to be occupied) Uighur Muslims who consider themselves to be persecuted and the Hong Kong region Chinese, who never wanted to unite again under the communist mainland govt. (Their language Cantonese has been cannibalized by the Mandarin language of the mainland)

The same holds true for India and it’s neighbors too. India had a rocky relationship with Pakistan, Bangladesh, Burma, Nepal, Sri Lanka — none of whom want to tolerate the big brother attitude of India— and internal discontent by Kashmir, Mizoram and the Naxals of central India.

But the universal antipathy towards the current communist regime in China is not the same as that felt towards India or Indian govt. which though corrupt, backward and struggling— isn’t as inhumane and cruel as any communist govt. could be.

So the world’s hatred towards China is more towards it’s communist regime — which is a totalitarian dictatorship government — initiated by Mao Zedong on the lines of the Soviet Union.

As much as the world is wary of China — the fact that 99% of the world’s manufactured goods are built in China — they can’t live without China either.

India and China’s trade too would be in billions of dollars and tilted in China’s favor.

As much as I detest the current Chinese communist regime, I absolutely admire the pre-communist China.

The China of Confucious, the China of universal kindness, the China of living and letting other live. It was this ancient China, which was usurped by the colonial powers in the +1800, over a century of humiliation, by Japan-Russia-Britain-France-Germany through opium wars, Japanese occupation.

The current Chinese communist regime has been at it’s brutal most under Mao Zedong (the first president of China, who got millions of Chinese killed and persecuted)

But the communist govt. still relies on the wisdom of it’s ancient literature to devise it’s strategy for war. It uses North Korea as a buffer against Japan and USA. It tries to play USA against the Soviet Union.

Probably it draws these strategy from the Art of War by Sun Tzu:

Ultimate excellence lies not in winning every battle, But in defeating the enemy Without even fighting. The highest form of warfare Is to attack [the enemy’s] Strategy itself; The next To attack [his] Alliances. The next , To attack Armies, The lowest form of war is To attack Cities. Siege warfare (Guerilla warfare) Is a last resort.

The Skillful Strategist Defeats the enemy Without doing battle, Captures the city Without laying siege, Overthrows the enemy state Without protracted war.

The victorious army Is victorious first And seeks battle later; The defeated army Does battle first And seeks victory later.

China and India had fought just two and half wars in last 3000 years of existence! The first war had occurred over 1300 years earlier during the Tang Dynasty (+618–907) when China dispatched troops to support an Indian kingdom against an illegitimate and aggressive rival. The second war occurred in Oct 1962 over the McMahon Line (the aggression of China was more of a resentment against India giving asylum to Dalai Lama in 1959) when China executed a sudden, devastating blow on the Indian positions and then retreated back to McMahon line before the brutal onset of Himalayan winters, even going so far as to return the captured Indian heavy weaponry.

The half war had taken place during +1300, when the Mongol ruler Tamerlane sacked Delhi. (But since it was lead by a Mongolian warlord, hence half Sino).

The lessons learned from the ancient campaign, is that China and India are not doomed for perpetual enmity. They can enjoy long period of peace.

So the question which needs to be asked is ‘Can India bring the communist government in China to it’s knees?”

No. And neither can China do the same to India. Gone are the days of invasions . Nehru’s disastrous Forward Policy , where he claimed Aksai Chin to be a part of Jammu & Kashmir led to Chinese insecurity and hence the Indo-China war of 1962 which took place during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

However India stands strong today, as we have learned our lessons from that war that forced us to abandon non violence as a state policy, and hence have the third largest armed forces to defend against Pakistan and China itself.

However a full scale war is not possible in the near future as all the three countries are nuclear powers and it can escalate into a world war involving all major powers of the world. The collapse of China and India will lead to the destruction of the cradles of civilization themselves.

Also China and India are business partners to risk a war. Rather they can only engage in realpolitik games and one-upmanships to try and hinder each other. Otherwise, rest assured , no real conflict is present between the two countriesNot a single bullet fired in 40 years despite border dispute with China: PM Modi .